Getting Started - Page 8 of 8
What growth rates should be
expected for future traffic volumes?
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) counts along the corridor for
the last six years (1996-2001) were obtained from the Florida Department of
Transportation (FDOT). A regression analysis was performed on the six data
points to find the best-fit linear and logarithmic traffic projections.
While the average annual linear growth rate ranges from 5 to 21 percent, the
logarithmic projection suggest an average annual 2.1 percent compounded
growth to the year 2010 and a 1.5 percent compounded growth to 2020.
The logarithmic projection is more realistic of future
growth for three reasons: 1) a linear rate of traffic growth is not
physically possible to sustain for an indefinite period of time, 2) the
historical ADT data from 2000 and 2001 in some cases already shows a trend
that is starting to level off (that is, the rate of growth is decreasing), and 3) as
roadways become more congested, the rate of traffic growth decreases. In
addition, the future land-use plan for the corridor does not indicate a
significant change over the existing land uses to warrant a continuation of
the observed historical growth rates.
growth rates recommended are as follows: 2.4 percent compounded annually for
link volumes and intersection turning movement counts except for the through
movement on Okeechobee Road, where a 2.7% annual growth rate is recommended.
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