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Getting Started - Page 8 of 8

ID# C3GS008

Getting Started

What growth rates should be expected for future traffic volumes?
Average Daily Traffic (ADT) counts along the corridor for the last six years (1996-2001) were obtained from the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). A regression analysis was performed on the six data points to find the best-fit linear and logarithmic traffic projections. While the average annual linear growth rate ranges from 5 to 21 percent, the logarithmic projection suggest an average annual 2.1 percent compounded growth to the year 2010 and a 1.5 percent compounded growth to 2020.

The logarithmic projection is more realistic of future growth for three reasons: 1) a linear rate of traffic growth is not physically possible to sustain for an indefinite period of time, 2) the historical ADT data from 2000 and 2001 in some cases already shows a trend that is starting to level off (that is, the rate of growth is decreasing), and 3) as roadways become more congested, the rate of traffic growth decreases. In addition, the future land-use plan for the corridor does not indicate a significant change over the existing land uses to warrant a continuation of the observed historical growth rates.

The applied growth rates recommended are as follows: 2.4 percent compounded annually for link volumes and intersection turning movement counts except for the through movement on Okeechobee Road, where a 2.7% annual growth rate is recommended.

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